do SBI may correct by next session or upper rally continue ? ...

who says we are not grwoing, in fact and in real terms we are grwoing at jet speeds, after three years our country scam have crossed all the presumed figures. One must appreciate and congratulaes our growth figures which are astonished - the debeat is not direction but it must be focused on amount and that is extra oridinery tremendous...

Due to growing population the per capita income is reducing, this is one of the biggest problem in India.Various scams and money laundring de rails our economy....

volatility thru short trading........dosent attract investors into the market...

Global economy has affected all stock markets of the world including India. Look at Indian bank ICIC.Inspite of making record profits stock price is much low.India is still growing at 7% yet market has hardly done anything. India being consumer market may be it will do better from now on....

The UPA govt. is to be blamed for the current mess in the Indian economy.The robust growth has come to a grinding halt on a/c of the govt. inaction to carry out the fiscal reforms.Time is running out for this govt. to act ....

It is due to flawed govt policies, inaction and blaming the opposition to cover up the inefficiency and no decision making..capability.. UPA 2 is the worst govt in the last 15 years. ...

Government is playing safe by taking no actions heading to staglation in the economy. Higher inflation is inevitable, erosion of capital too inevitable, investments drying up, only time can heal, patience in the market is an important virtue more so now....

This seems to be a well sought out strategy by Airtel. Customer acquisition by giving low rates and earn a first mover advantage and by the time other companies drop their rates, TRAI will have announced the increased price for spectrum auction and prices are bound to go up. As a result every Telecom company including Airtel will increase their price. But the added advantage is customer retention will be high because 1. Airtel has good 3G coverage 2. Every company will then be as same price level as others (Yes, once new spectrum prices will be announced Airtel will have to increase its prices steeply in order to cover up for the losses) This will also lead to an increase in stock price of Airtel which have now been plummeting for sometime. And just in case TRAI doesn`t hike spectrum price (Unlikely !!!) then Airtel will still have a first mover advantage and will increase the price at later stages though the earned profits will be much lower as compared to previous scenario and stock price movement will be gradual and slugish....

Yes. Telcos are obsess with numbers and volumes. ...

Equity benchmarks ended an otherwise miserable week on a positive note, but the undertone remains nervous. RBI’s intervention helped slow the pace of slide in the rupee, but most players are betting on the currency weakening further near term unless foreign capital inflows pick up sharply. Talks of Greece exiting the Eurozone have gained momentum, and could roil world markets further in the coming days. The only positive development for India this week was the steady decline in crude prices. A quick look at the key developments of the week.

* April wholesale price index-based inflation at 7.23%, way above market expectation of 6.7%
* Rating agency Moody’s cuts Reliance Industries’ credit rating to negative, saying falling gas
output could hurt cash flows
* Rupee hits new low everyday; touches 54.82 to dollar on Friday
* Greece to go to polls again on June 17
* Finance Minister says India story intact, proposes austerity measures
* April net direct tax receipts up 644% to Rs 14,812 crore
* HDFC dropped from MSCI, company disputes weightage calculation
* Moody’s downgrades LIC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank
* Nasscom sticks to guidance of 11-14% revenue growth for FY13
* SBI Q4 better than expected, asset quality improves, Tata Steel Q4 disappoints
* Moody’s downgrades 16 Spanish banks
* Germany’s GDP grows 0.5% in January-March, better than expected. France’s GDP flat and
Italy’s shrinks 0.8%, more than expected
* WTI crude slips to USD 92, and Brent to below USD 107 on concerns over global growth

What do you think? Is there more bad news than positive news coming next week?
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Exactly three years ago, trading was halted for the first time in the history of the Indian stock market, after there were only buyers. The Sensex surged 2100 points as the return of UPA to power with a stronger electoral mandate raised hopes of speedy economic reforms that would help India defy the gloom in the developed world. Three years on, the world is a much different place and India, despite its higher relative growth, is worse off than most other emerging markets. At current levels, the Sensex is barely 11% higher than what it was this day three years ago.
What do you think? Are flawed government policies to be blamed more than the turmoil in the global economy?
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Shares of power utilities may be available cheap, but be careful of what you are buying. According to brokerage house HSBC, a turnaround in the fortunes of the sector is still some way off.
An extract from the HSBC report on the power sector:

“Private sector-led record capacity addition of 33GW in FY11-12 has considerably reduced investor concerns about capacity. However a sharply reduced PLF and PAF (plant load and availability factor) for both public and private generators (lowest since FY07) is a matter of concern and we believe has greatly eroded margins and profitability. The operational weakness was most acute for the newest projects, while a drop in operating levels was sharper for private companies with less visibility on coal supply.”

What do you think? Are power shares a good bet at these levels?
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Even as telecom companies are crying hoarse about the TRAI proposals, another round of price war has begun, this time in the 3G segment. Market leader Airtel has cut tariffs across its various 3G services offerings by as much as 70%. Its rivals will have no choice but to follow suit. The price war comes at a time when telecom companies are protesting against the TRAI proposal calling for a steep hike in reserve price for spectrum auction. The companies claim the move will severely erode their profitability, and they will be forced to pass on increased costs to the consumer in the form of higher tariffs. Fourth quarter earnings of listed telecom companies showed a clear strain on operating margins, as most players appear to be trying to increase market share before focusing on the bottomline. One of the reasons cited for the price cut by Airtel is that 3G services in general have been slow in picking up. This is worrying for operators who have shelled out a hefty fee for 3G spectrum. All telecom players grip about pressure on margins due to fierce competition, and yet nobody wants to be the first to raise prices for fear of losing out on market share.
What do you think? Are some of the problems being faced by telecom companies self-created?
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The Parliamentary Panel has recommended that the government should have no role in acquisition of land for the private sector for industrial use. The justification being that nowhere in the world is such a practice seen. There is no exemption even where land would be required for infrastructure, mining and power projects and special economic zones. The Economic Times reports that the government will reject the panel’s proposals, as it would make things tougher for the industry in these times of an economic slowdown. Not surprisingly, the industry is protesting against the panel’s findings, as land acquisition is among the major hurdles companies have been facing while setting up new projects. The logic behind asking the private sector to acquire land at market prices is to ensure that the original owners of the land are compensated adequately. There have been plenty of cases where the government acquired land at below market rates and handed it over to the private sector, which later led to violent protests in states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, to name a few.
What do you think? Should the government completely stay out of the process of helping private sector acquiring land for large projects?
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Shares of Tata Motors are up 1% at Rs 271.25 in a sluggish market. The stock had plunged 7% on Tuesday on lower than expected global sales of its Jaguar Land Rover brands. JLR April sales were up 29% year-on-year, but down 31% compared to March.
Brokerage house CLSA has retained its buy rating on the stock saying there are no signs yet of broad-based demand weakness.
“The UK market always sees a large seasonal drop in sales in April and JLR has a higher UK exposure than its German peers. We note that JLR has seen an average drop of 30% in volumes from Mar to Apr in the last 10 years, though the drop has been a lower 22% in the last two years. We were expecting a lower MoM (month-on-month) drop this year due to strong Evoque demand. Tata is not seeing any signs of demand weakness in any geography and continues to guide for 100-110K Evoque volumes for FY13 and 4-6% growth for non-Evoque industry sales. We continue to like Tata Motors given multiple volume triggers in the form of Evoque ramp-up and the launch of the new Range Rover platform by end-CY12.”

What do you think? Are Tata Motors shares a good buy at these levels?
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Today, it is eight years to the day when CPI leader AB Bardhan’s anti-divestment remarks rattled investors and sent stocks into a free fall. Trading was first halted for an hour after the Sensex crashed 550 points or 10%, and then again for an hour after it plunged another 5%. The index finally ended around 11%, after domestic institutions, notably LIC, bought shares at lower levels to calm the market. Eight years on, and with a stronger electoral mandate in its second innings, the Congress-led UPA somehow has managed to create a bigger policy mess than if the Left Parties had been backseat driving the government. And this is the same UPA that was greeted by a 2100-point jump in the Sensex when it returned to power in May 2009.
External factors are to blame partly, but much of the wounds have been self-inflicted through reckless fiscal policies. As a report by brokerage house Citi says, the government appears to be delighting in scoring self-goals. Things are looking so bleak, both globally and domestically, that it would come as no surprise if the intra-day circuit filter (lower end) for the indices gets triggered one of these days. What do you think? Is the market poised for a massive sell-off?
...

Exactly three years ago, trading was halted for the first time in the history of the Indian stock market, after there were only buyers. The Sensex surged 2100 points as the return of UPA to power with a stronger electoral mandate raised hopes of speedy economic reforms that would help India defy the gloom in the developed world. Three years on, the world is a much different place and India, despite its higher relative growth, is worse off than most other emerging markets. At current levels, the Sensex is barely 11% higher than what it was this day three years ago.
What do you think? Are flawed government policies to be blamed more than the turmoil in the global economy?
...

What should an equity investor be doing in this market when it looks as though things can worsen further? Perhaps one can take cues from billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala who has been selective buying stocks over the last couple of weeks. He appears to be averaging his cost of acquisition in stocks which he feels are undervalued. Jhunjhunwala has been a buyer in Aptech, Geometric Software and Prime Focus, according to disclosures to the stock exchanges. He may be buying other stocks as well, and perhaps even selling down some others. Equity investors, in general are unable to make up their minds. The good stocks (FMCG, pharma) are not exactly cheap, but the risk-reward ratio is no more attractive. And sectors where stocks are available cheap (infra, cap goods, realty, and to some extent, banking) have some more pain in store for a while. The smartest of investors will admit that nobody can catch the top or bottom of a market. That being the case, an ideal strategy would be to make a list of stocks one always wanted to own, and then systematically keep putting money into it at regular intervals, instead of waiting for a 15,000 Sensex or 4500 Nifty.
What do you think? Is it a good time to start putting money in beaten down sectors like infra and cap goods?
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Loan-against-gold firm Muthoot Finance has reported a strong set of numbers for FY12, with loan book growing 55% to nearly Rs 25,000 crore, revenues almost doubling to Rs 4544 crore and net profit rising 80% to Rs 892 crore. Fourth quarter numbers too appear good on a year-on-year comparison, but the recent tightening of rules for gold finance firms is clearly reflecting in sequential comparison. Quarterly revenues rose 4% sequentially, while net profit fell 6%. The decline in net profit would have been steeper but for a tight control on expenditure. Under the revised RBI rules, loan against gold has been capped at 60% of the value of the jewellery pledged(loan to value or LTV). Also, loans by banks to gold finance companies are no longer eligible for priority sector lending status.
At Tuesday’s closing price of Rs 128.75, the stock is available at a little over five times FY12 earnings. But it is future earnings that the investors are more interested in. And the management’s guidance does not appear too encouraging.
“The operating environment of the company has been substantially redefined on account of the restrictions imposed by Reserve Bank of India in February 2012 on the maximum loan that could be given against the value of the jewels pledged. The company is taking fleet footed steps to sustain growth and profitability in the changing business environment complying with the RBI directives in toto,” M G George Muthoot said in the press release.
Share prices of both Manappuram Finance and Muthoot have been under pressure over the last couple of months, as investors expect margins to be under pressure because of the cap on the loan to value ratio. That is because gold finance firms charge the maximum interest rates when the loan to value is higher, and are known to lend up to 85% of the value of the jewellery. The runaway rise in gold prices seems to have abated for now, and if this trend continues, gold loan companies will feel the pinch. That is because they will have to either shrink their loan book or ask their customers to put up more collateral. The days of juicy margins (around 20% net profit margin) for these companies are long gone, but it will be interesting to see what the market now considers as a new normal for the sector. The current quarter numbers should give some indication about that.
What do you think? Are gold loan companies a good bet at these levels?
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Key indices are flat in morning trade, as concerns over weakening rupee and high inflation loom. Any cheer from easing crude prices has been offset by worries of fresh elections in Greece and a strong possibility that the country may exit the Euro zone. Larsen shares are up 5% to Rs 1219, after the company’s strong fourth quarter numbers (announced yesterday) and better than expected guidance for the current financial year. Goldman Sachs, Nomura and UBS have retained their buy ratings on the stock. Kotak Securities has maintained its add rating on the stock, saying the stock is attractively valued even without factoring the positive guidance. Larsen’s performance has lifted sentiment for the capital goods sector as a whole, with the BSE Capital Goods Index up 2.2%.
What do you think? Are things beginning to look up for the capital goods sector?
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Aptech shares are up around 3% to Rs 75.65 in a bearish session, apparently on news that promoter Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has increased his stake by picking up 10.95 lakh shares (2.2%) through open market purchase on Thursday. As on March 31 this year, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, his wife Rekha, and their partnership firm Rare Equity together held a little over 32% in the company, and the promoter group as a whole, which includes Radhakishan Damani, held close to 36%.
Going by media reports, Jhunjhunwala has been looking to sell his stake in company for nearly a year now. He is said to have been looking for a price in the vicinity of Rs 140 per share, valuing the company at Rs 700 crore or three times the company’s annual revenues. Last month, The Economic Times reported that there were no takers at that price. And while Jhunjhunwala has tasted huge success with stocks like Titan, CRISIL and Lupin, to name a few, Aptech clearly ranks among his failed bets, not as much in opportunity cost, as much in terms of the time and energy that the billionaire investor poured into running the company. He first started buying the stock in July 2005 when it was quoting at Rs 56 a share, and through a mix of preferential allotment and open market purchase, kept increasing his stake till November 2008. The stock touched a high of Rs 436 in December 2007, but it is doubtful if he would have made any trading profits as he was wearing the respectable hat of a promoter, and not that of a trader. Jhunjhunwala’s decision to increase his stake in Aptech has surprised many. He is too astute an investor to throw good money after bad. The stock price has gone nowhere in the past few years, and given the anemic growth in revenues over the last six years, prospects don’t look too bright.

What do you think? Is Aptech a good bet at current levels?
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